Well, I promised my thoughts on Brexit. so here goes: First, just to state, I am a confirmed Remainer, so if you’re one of those who believed the bo###cks spouted by Johnson, Davies, Fox, Farage and Gove et al I’d advise you left now!
Now I know Brexiteers won the referendum – just – but let’s be honest, as things go the whole thing was a shambles and Cameron stupidly gave a chance to all those worst affected by something like 10 years of Tory austerity cuts to take the opportunity to slam the EU, even though the EU, or it’s citizens, were not, and still are not, to blame for the state of our nation. Theresa Maybot’s (a phrase coined by John Crace of the Guardian – see his political sketches here) surprise election almost gave us the result we needed but instead we are stuck with a gang of incompetents trying to plait fog and herd kittens, because they don’t seem to have a clue about how to deal with the problems they have caused us all. And whilst the Tories have been blundering around with Brexit they seem to have missed the disaster of Carillion and the recent need to bail out Branson and Souter with their failed North East Railway franchise.
The referendum to ‘advise’ the incumbent Tory government of the mood of the nation with regard to whether we stay in or leave the EU was the laziest, most overtly self-satisfying but inept political move I think this country has ever been subjected to by the Tories. The reason behind the referendum was simply for Cameron to see off the looney element of the Conservative Party and confirm his power. Unfortunately, he forgot to put any effort into wording the ballot in a reasoned and considered way that gave any weight to the views in the countries that make up the UK; all with their own issues, dependencies and problems. He then compounded that mistake by not putting any effort into campaigning to remain, galvanising the remain cause or addressing and confronting the lies spouted by Johnson (who is still at it!), Gove, Farage and the rest. The ineptitude of the UK negotiators means that with the clock ticking we are looking at a hard, crash landed Brexit with no agreement on trade and customs. A hard Brexit means we will have to have a hard border between the Republic and Northern Ireland, how else will Brexiteers be able to stop the hundreds of thousands of Turkish people Boris Johnson threatened them with if we voted to remain from entering the North if we don’t erect border and customs posts at every crossing? The border is 499 km long (310 miles in dinosaur speak) and has over 200 road crossings, a massive expense to build, and then computerise, and then staff. So let’s keep looking at this and ask who can possibly advocate installing border controls at Cairnryan, Douglas, Birkenhead or Belfast and Larne to prevent EU citizens who have strolled over a land border between North and South to reach our shores by boat? And again, what about the expense? Tory promises of no border restrictions are no more than smoke and mirrors designed to keep Brexiteers quiet, the Maybot will promise all sorts but in truth they will all be lies!
The consequences of a hard Brexit hard border are unthinkable but I believe Brexit would make it unavoidable. Back in the mid 80’s when I was slimmer, fitter and had legs that worked I did an awful lot of caving – I was the Derbyshire Caving Club Caver of the Year in 1985 – and one Whitsuntide a few of us went to Belcoo in Co. Fermanagh for the week to experience the caves and potholes in the area – North and South. One night, walking home from the Bush Bar in Blacklion, Co. Cavan (in the Republic) we were stopped by the Ulster Defence Regiment – the infamous UDR, renowned for their no-nonsense approach to ‘policing’ the Troubles – and I was bent over the bonnet of a Land Rover and had the muzzle of a rifle stuck in the back of my neck whilst I was frisked. Do we really want to go back to those times? Is that going to be the price we all have to pay for the Tories to hang on to power, supported by the DUP, all to placate their looney right wing? How can the people of Northern Ireland believe the Tories in government can be trusted to be honest brokers fulfilling their role in the peace process? Then we’ve got Spain wringing it’s hands in glee at the prospect of swallowing up Gibraltar – where will it all end?
I’ll have to come clean and hold my hands up here and now to admit to feeling let down by the Labour Party which, I believe, has been cowardly in it’s refusal to stand up and be counted for fear of losing majorities in seats that voted to leave. When I was a Trade Union rep one of the hardest things I had to do was tell people things they didn’t want to hear and yes, it could cost personally one way or another when you did, but that should never stop you making your case, arguing the details and trying to convince people of the error of their ways. To me the Labour Party is hiding from its responsibilities, which are to the nation as a whole, in an attempt not to alienate themselves from voters they feel they will lose if they support Remain wholeheartedly. What will they tell those people when, after Brexit, Honda, Toyota, Nissan, Siemens (manufacturers of wind farm turbine blades in Hull) and BMW (who make the Mini in Oxford) all move lock, stock and barrel to continental Europe? Better engage Labour voters and supporters now and address their issues I say, take the arguments to them and put the work in to convince people we are better off in the tent p##sing out rather than outside the tent p##sing in – to paraphrase Lyndon B. Johnson.
Obviously, besides my politically persuaded beliefs about remaining, I also have a very personal reason for disagreeing with, and continuing to argue against, the referendum result: Namely the personal cost to me. I’m on my BT pension and sick pay from my employer (which will end in 2019) and the effects of the referendum have cut the value of the £ to the € by something like 20%, which is a massive hit on a limited income. I know, I decided to come out here so hard luck chum, but there are others living in the EU (maybe even your Mum and Dad or Grandma and Grandad) who are really feeling the pinch. It’s hard to get a recent number of UK citizens living in the EU because of the timings of censuses – I get figures of between 1.2 and 1.5 million – so let’s think conservatively and put it at 1 million. If we assume that the EU won’t chuck us all out, we have to consider how many would be able to remain for purely financial reasons, given that the £ in their Bank isn’t converting to €’s as well as it did. If 25% of these decided to return where would they all live? There aren’t enough homes in the UK – demand far outstrips supply, hence the astronomical cost of buying a house – so where would the extra, say, 100,000 houses the returnees would need, come from, on top of the number of houses we are short of in the UK? We need to build something like 250,000 new houses every year now just to keep up with current demands but we haven’t exceeded 200,000 houses a year since 1988 – so what’s to do? There are other factors that also need to be considered. Houses in France are plentiful and cheap – but they can take literally years to sell and when, or if, they do, the tax laws are such that there are no massive profits to be made; if you are lucky you might recoup any costs modernising a house. So your Mum and Dad might be stuck in France in a beautiful rural location, on a reduced income, trying to sell one of hundreds of extra houses on the market, all of which will have reduced the price (supply remember) but no local interest and no UK buyers anymore (the ‘and demand’ part). So they come home and drop themselves on your doorstep, or the Social Services asking for Housing Benefit, or the local authority for a Council House (whoops – we’ve sold all them off now – what do you think all these private landlords are renting out?) or, heaven forbid, they drop down poorly with all the stress and end up blocking an A&E bed! I know I seem to be making light of this but none of it is beyond belief. Brexit will load more and more costs onto Health, Social Services and Housing – as the impact of Brexit forces people back to the UK. Don’t forget, the Maybot has confirmed that EU nationals will not be thrown out. There will be no financial rebalancing for the Brexiteers I’m afraid. Current pressures and costs on services will remain and then be added to by the likes of me and your Grandparents!
OK – rant over – no more about ‘big’ Brexit until the next Tory gaffe!
Thanks for reading, more some time next week when I’ll talk about how ‘little person’ Brexit will impact us both personally – from both a financial and healthcare perspective. One initial impression is that the NHS is worth fighting for, and that isn’t to denigrate the French health service at all.
Jem